Posted by Lambchop
Earlier this week , the University of Colorado has released results of a state-buy-state election analysis that predicts Electoral College votes. Their forecasted results have been on target since 1980.
The study predicts 218 electoral votes for Obama: he would need 270 to win the election. Romney would win.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income. *****From University of Colorado at Boulder Press Release 8/22/2012
The Model predicts that Obama will lose key swing states: North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
The study did not take into account factors that would obviously negatively impact the incumbent, Obama:
- U6 unemployment (the U6 factors in discouraged workers who have left the job market),
- The Paul Ryan Vice Presidential pick or
- Current household income data numbers that were just released yesterday & show another decline.
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